Exploration de données électorales de l'entre-deux tours¶

import pandas as pd
from pathlib import Path
import altair as alt
alt.renderers.enable("html")

raw_data = pd.read_excel(
    RESULTS_DIR.joinpath(
        "lg2024-resultats-circonscriptions-une-ligne-par-candidat2.xlsx"
    )
)
raw_data.head()

raw_data["CodNuaCand"].unique()

raw_data["Elu"].unique()

first_round_seats = (
    already_elected_candidates["CodNuaCand"].value_counts().reset_index()
)
alt.Chart(first_round_seats).mark_arc().encode(
    theta=alt.Theta("count:Q").title("Nombre de sièges"),
    color=alt.Color("CodNuaCand:N")
    .title("Nuance politique")
    .scale(
        domain=first_round_seats["CodNuaCand"].unique(),
        range=[
            party_to_color[nuance]
            for nuance in first_round_seats["CodNuaCand"].unique()
        ],
    ),
    tooltip=["CodNuaCand", "count"],
).properties(title="Répartition des sièges obtenus au 1er tour")

leads_per_party = leading_party_by_circo.value_counts().reset_index()
alt.Chart(leads_per_party).mark_bar().encode(
    color=alt.Color("CodNuaCand:N")
    .title("Nuance politique")
    .scale(domain=list(party_to_color.keys()), range=list(party_to_color.values()))
    .legend(None),
    x=alt.X("count:Q"),
    order=alt.Order("count:Q", sort="descending"),
    tooltip=["CodNuaCand", "count"],
).properties(width=400, title="Partis politiques en tête")

all_configurations

count_configurations = all_configurations.value_counts()
count_configurations.head(20)

count_configurations.head(5)

scores_by_group = (
    raw_data.groupby(["CodCirElec", "GroupPol"])["RapportExprimes"].sum().reset_index()
)
scores_by_group

scores_by_group = (
    scores_by_group.sort_values(["CodCirElec", "RapportExprimes"], ascending=False)
    .groupby("CodCirElec")["GroupPol"]
    .nth(0)
    .value_counts()
    .reset_index()
)

alt.Chart(scores_by_group).mark_arc().encode(
    theta=alt.Theta("count:Q"),
    color=alt.Color("GroupPol:N")
    .scale(domain=list(group_to_color.keys()), range=list(group_to_color.values()))
    .title("Ensemble politique"),
    tooltip=["count:Q"],
).properties(title="Rapports de force 1er tour par ensemble politique")

candidate_names_second_round_after = pd.read_csv(
    RESULTS_DIR.joinpath(
        "legislatives-2024-candidatures-france-entiere-tour-2-2024-07-03-15h37.csv"
    ),
    delimiter=";",
)
candidate_names_second_round_after.head(2)

print(
    f"Avant désistements: {raw_data[raw_data['Elu'] == 'QUALIF T2'].shape[0]}, après: {raw_data['valid_round_two'].sum()}"
)

alt.Chart(raw_data[raw_data["Elu"] == "QUALIF T2"]).mark_bar().encode(
    y=alt.Y("count():Q").title("Nombre de candidats"),
    x=alt.X("CodNuaCand:N").title("Nuance politique").sort("-y"),
    color=alt.Color("CodNuaCand:N")
    .title("Nuance politique")
    .scale(domain=list(party_to_color.keys()), range=list(party_to_color.values())),
    opacity=alt.Opacity("valid_round_two:N").title("En place au 2nd tour"),
    tooltip=["count():Q"],
).properties(title="Visualisation des désistements par parti")

focus_circo_0101 = raw_data[raw_data["CodCirElec"] == "0101"]
alt.Chart(focus_circo_0101).mark_bar().encode(
    x=alt.X("NbVoix:Q").title("Nombre de voix au premier tour"),
    color=alt.Color("GroupPol:N").scale(domain=list(group_to_color.keys()), range=list(group_to_color.values())),
    y=alt.Y("valid_round_two:N").title("Present au 2nd tour"),
).properties(title="Rapports de force (circonscription 0101)")

import geopandas as gpd

contours_circos = gpd.read_file(
    DATA_DIR.joinpath("insee/circonscriptions_legislatives_030522.shp")
)
contours_circos["is_overseas"] = contours_circos["dep"].str.len() > 2
contours_circos = contours_circos.rename(columns={"id_circo": "CodCirElec"})
contours_circos.head()

leading_party_by_circo

single_selector = alt.selection_single(
    fields=["CodCirElec"], on="click", clear=True
)

alt.Chart(contours_circos[~contours_circos["is_overseas"]]).mark_geoshape().encode(
    tooltip=["CodCirElec:N", "leading_party:N"],
    opacity=alt.condition(single_selector, alt.value(1), alt.value(0.6)),
    color=alt.Color("leading_party:N", legend=None).scale(
        domain=list(party_to_color.keys()) + ["1er tour"],
        range=list(party_to_color.values()) + ["grey"],
    ),
).add_selection(single_selector).properties(
    title="Vue France entière (2nd tour, circonscriptions acquises en gris)", width=500
) & alt.Chart(
    raw_data
).mark_bar().encode(
    x=alt.X("NbVoix:Q").title("Nombre de voix au premier tour"),
    color=alt.Color("CodNuaCand:N").scale(domain=list(party_to_color.keys()), range=list(party_to_color.values())),
    y=alt.Y("valid_round_two:N").title("Present au 2nd tour"),
    tooltip=["GroupPol:N", "NbVoix:Q"]
).add_selection(
    single_selector
).transform_filter(
    single_selector
).properties(
    title=f"Rapports de force pour la circonscription", width=500
)